Estimation Poker
Estimation Poker is a consensus-based technique used for estimating tasks and backlog items in project management and Agile development frameworks. This method is a type of collaborative relative estimation that typically involves multiple team members. It operates on the premise that collective wisdom results in more accurate estimates.
The Process
Scale Agreement: Before starting, the team agrees on a scale for estimation. The Fibonacci series is a commonly used scale (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, ...), but other modified scales can also be used, like 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100.
Card Distribution: Each team member receives a set of cards that correspond to the agreed-upon scale.
Reference Estimation: The team often begins by selecting a reference item for estimation. This can be achieved using other consensus-building techniques such as Delphi or Wide-band Delphi.
Estimation Round: Each team member picks a card that, in their opinion, best represents the relative effort needed to complete the backlog item under consideration. Cards are revealed simultaneously to prevent bias.
Discussion: Members who provided the highest and lowest estimates explain their rationale. This initiates a discussion aimed at reconciling the different perspectives.
Re-Estimation: Following the discussion, a new round of estimation occurs. The process is repeated until a consensus is reached.
Convergence: The end goal is to reach an estimate that everyone agrees upon.
Benefits
Collaborative Insight: By involving multiple perspectives, Estimation Poker taps into the collective wisdom of the team, usually leading to more accurate estimates.
Bias Minimization: The simultaneous reveal of cards prevents team members from being influenced by others, thus reducing estimation bias.
Quick Convergence: The iterative nature, combined with discussion and clarification, usually results in quick convergence on an acceptable estimate.
Contextual Understanding: The discussion process educates team members on different aspects of the task, providing a more well-rounded understanding of what is involved.
Applications
Primarily used in Agile frameworks, like Scrum, for estimating the effort required for user stories or product backlog items.
Can be used in conjunction with other techniques like the Delphi method for initial reference estimation.
Applicable in both software development projects and other types of project management scenarios where tasks need to be estimated.
In summary, Estimation Poker is an effective, collaborative technique for relative estimation that combines individual judgment with team consensus, optimized for quick and accurate task estimation.